Dutch GDP growth held back by lower gas production

Dutch GDP growth in the second quarter of 2015 seems to have been very negatively impacted by lower gas extraction. The government decision in February to reduce the maximum allowed gas production from the Groningen field in the first half of the year to 16.5 billion cubic meters -as well as uncertainty about the total limit that the government would set for 2015- has resulted in a rather drastic fall in extraction in the second quarter, which will most likely lead to lower Q2 GDP growth than the current forecast. But this quarterly drop is expected to be a one-off effect. 

"Looking at the total impact of the reduction in the production from the Groningen gas field, we have already taken the 0.5%-pt impact that this should have on growth into account in our GDP forecast for 2015 as a whole. So while Q2 is set to disappoint, the underlying economic trend remains on track," notes Rabobank.

Although Dutch producers' opinion about their production in the next three months took a small hit in July as a result of the Greek crisis, producers' confidence in both the Netherlands and abroad is still at levels that coincide with further growth of production and exports.