Draghi's November comments likely improved German economy's price competitiveness

ECB President Mario Draghi at least achieved his goal, in November, till where EUR is concerned. He had made repeated comments that further monetary easing would be imminent, and the currency depreciated against most in November.

The price competitiveness is then improved in German economy. In November, on average, the real external value of fictitious D-mark was almost 1.5% lower than in October, and the minus compared to November 2014, now sums to 3.5%.

The FX market has aggravated, and the effects on German economy, became firmer again. While the leading indicator for the country's economy was pushed up to 0.24, it is still below H1 15 levels.

This is mainly due to sluggish global economy, despite the fact that these effects from FX market are weaker than those in spring. PMI for US manufacturing dropped by a 1.5% in November, euro zone indices, there is hardly any change in China.

"In fact, against the backdrop of the problems in emerging markets, there is even a downside risk to growth. We have therefore lowered our 2016 growth forecast once again to now 1.3%, which places us well below the consensus", says Commerzbank in a research note.