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Downside risks remain for the Aussie

The Aussie out-performed after strong GDP data released on Wednesday morning. Australian real GDP expanded by a stronger than expected 0.6% Q/Q in Q4, resulting in a 3.0% annual gain - impressive figures given the commodity price crash and general global financial market conditions.

The data certainly backs up the stance of the RBA to refrain from monetary easing. The central bank is likely to feel confirmed in its view that the structural change away from the mining sector is in full swing. Also the rise in price of iron, which has now jumped 30% from its 2016 low, points to an easing of the drag coming from the terms of trade shock.

However, it is still too early to sound the all clear for the Aussie. Not only further developments in China remain a risk, the continuation of the Fed's rate hike cycle is not yet off the agenda either. Also, any disappointment in inflation developments could bring back the chances for RBA rate cut. Against this background we see mainly downside risks in AUD-USD, said Commerzbank in a report.

 

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