Downside risks expected to Hong Kong's Q1 GDP growth

Hong Kong will release Q1 real GDP data on 15 May. Headline growth of 2.3% y/y is expected, versus 2.2% in Q4-2014, primarily as a widening merchandise trade surplus offset the continued slowdown in household and mainland tourist spending. 

The negative impact of the mass protests in Q4-2014 is waning and likely contributed slightly. 

"We acknowledge downside risks to Q1 GDP growth given China's further slowdown and Chinese yuan (CNY) weakness. China has loosened monetary policy in recent months, but we expect any positive spillover to Hong Kong to be gradual and delayed. The recent acceleration in southbound investment inflows is a positive; we expect more inflows in Q2", says Standard Chartered.