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Policymakers in People's Bank of China and in Beijing, will not at all be happy with latest moves in Yuan. Last night Dollar registered one of its biggest drop, largest since 2009, when, then FED president Ben Bernanke first introduced quantitative easing.
Dollar weakened not only against developed market peers but emerging markets as well. Compared to such move, reaction from offshore Yuan has relatively mute. In fact, offshore counterpart is up 0.08% today, as of now, trading at 6.614 per Dollar. Onshore counterpart is relatively much stronger. PBoC has set Yuan mid-point at 6.5419 per Dollar.
After, PBoC took series of measures to drain liquidity from offshore market, that pushed Yuan Hibor (Hong Kong interbank offered rate) to record high of 68% to force losses on speculators shorting Yuan and the spread, Offshore Yuan (CNH) dropped to parity to onshore part, but just after a few days it has started depreciating again and now the spread stands at Yuan 0.05 per Dollar. At the peak of January, it was more than double of current spread.
As January data pointed out that economic weakness has persisted, so has the capital flow. This month's released of January FX reserve might point to another record drop.
In the near term, due to increased intervention and stocks coming closer to its fundamental valuation, outflow might stabilize.
