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Denmark has been running significant current account surpluses over the past few years. However, the surplus has trended down recently and we expect it to edge down a bit further in the years to 2020.
While the Danish recovery tends to narrow the current account surplus, the build-up of Danish net foreign wealth has the opposite effect. Denmark will probably continue to run substantial current account surpluses thanks to its large trade balance surpluses and net foreign capital income, Danske Bank reported.
A large current account surplus implies an underlying demand for Danish krone which will continue to contribute to a downward pressure on Danish interest rates going forward.
"The risks to our outlook come from global trading activity, which has been low in recent years and could be further depressed by any future US protectionist measures, as well as from developments in the return on investment in Denmark and abroad," the report said.
