Danske Bank Markets: US Job preview

Quotes from Danske Bank Markets

• Our expectation for non-farm payrolls for February is 235,000, which is in line with consensus, as we expect some deceleration in the recent elevated trend in job growth. Our trend model nevertheless continues to suggest a solid momentum in job gains in coming months. After the decline in government jobs in January, we expect a rebound of 15,000 in February (which is 10,000 higher than the six-month moving average). 
  
  
• The unemployment rate is expected to drop yet again in February to 5.6%. This means the unemployment rate continues to inch gradually closer to the Fed's longterm neutral rate, which is currently at 5.25%. 
  
  
• Gauges of wage inflation have gained a lot of attention lately as several members of the FOMC would like to see indications that wage growth is picking up ahead of a first fed funds rate hike. Average hourly earnings rebounded in January as expected after a weak number in December. Survey data and the Employment Cost Index suggest that wage inflation could be picking up and we expect the upward trend to be confirmed on Friday.