• Following weaker-than-expected initial Q1 GDP releases in both the UK and US earlier this week, today's data should provide some insight into the outlook for Q2. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI (0830 GMT) posted successive increases in Q1, with March's reading firming to 54.4 from 54.0 - an eight-month high. 
  
  
• This primarily reflected the strength of domestic demand in the UK with current output and new orders reportedly accelerating on the month, although the rise in the latter was further supported by a healthy rise in the export balance. This adds to confidence that export growth can continue, especially in the context of firming eurozone activity. 
  
  
• For April, the softening in 'flash' PMIs for Asia, and in particular Europe, point to some moderation in global manufacturing sentiment. Consequently, Lloyds Bank expects the headline rate to drop back marginally to 54.0 from 54.4, reversing March's gain. 
  
  
• Other data flow includes money supply (0830 GMT), consumer credit (0830 GMT) and BoE mortgage approvals (0830 GMT). According to Lloyds Bank approvals are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month in March, reaching a seven-month high of 62.5k.
  
  
• In the US, the manufacturing ISM (1400 GMT) has now posted five months of successive declines, reflecting a combination of factors including the strength of the US dollar, West Coast port strikes and poor weather. Some easing in these headwinds is expected to have boosted manufacturing sentiment last month. Consequently, while the regional surveys of manufacturing activity have been mixed, the ISM is expected to post a rise to 52.2 in April from 51.5.