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Daily Economic Outlook: 30th June, 2015

 

  • In advance of the end-month bailout extension expiry, Greek developments will remain closely watched both for signs of any return to negotiations, or of any change in sentiment around the ECB's ongoing support to the Greek banking system. With expectations already widespread that Greece will not remit payment to the IMF of the  €1.55bn due at the end of the month, thus entering arrears, any signal that the emergency ECB support could be withdrawn would be the most likely impetus prompting an intensification of risk-off sentiment.

  • European data - including German unemployment for June, French consumer spending in May and German retail sales for May - will also provide further colour on the strength of the Eurozone's recovery over the course of Q2, expects Lloyds Bank. Strength seen in yesterday's Spanish CPI data for June, alongside weakness in German data, together points to a modest softening of the aggregate Eurozone inflation rate to 0.2% in June.

  • Domestically, the focus will be on the 3rd estimate of UK GDP data for Q1. Revisions to construction output released since the 2nd estimate seem likely to raise this to a quarterly pace of 0.4%; the annual rate is likely to rise to 2.7% in light of revisions back to 2014 Q1, states Lloyds Bank. Meanwhile, current account deficit estimates over Q1, where the bank expects a £25.8bn deficit, would be barely improved from a likely upward revision to 2014 Q4.
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