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Daily Economic Outlook: 2nd July, 2015

  • While markets await further developments in the Greek crisis, the focus today will at least briefly turn to the US. The monthly employment report has usually been seen as the key release of the month and that the FOMC has made "further improvement" in the labour market as one of the criteria it wishes to see met before it starts to raise interest rates, has underlined its importance. By and large data have suggested that economic growth has picked up in Q2 and this is expected to reflect in a solid June payrolls report today, says Lloyds bank.
  • Other labour indicators point to a strong report. Initial jobless claims have remained low during June, while yesterday's ADP estimate of private sectors payrolls was higher than expected at 237k. According to Lloyds Bank, a 235k rise in employment, while the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 5.4%. Such an outcome would leave a September policy rate rise as still a strong possibility. There will also be considerable interest in whether average earnings growth continues to drift up following an unexpectedly strong rise in May. The annual rate is likely to be unchanged at 2.3%, says Lloyds Bank.
  • Elsewhere it is a quiet day for data releases with the UK construction PMI for June the next most notable. The revisions to UK GDP published earlier this week, which were partially driven by changes to construction estimates, showed that while this sector is relatively small it can have an outsize impact on GDP. However, it should be noted that the correlation between the PMI and the 'official' construction output series is not always very high.  Lloyds Bank forecasts a PMI rise for June.  

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