Daily Economic Outlook: 22th October 2015

Today's global economic calendar is set to be dominated by the ECB's policy decision and President Draghi's press conference at 1:30pm. With the likelihood rising that the ECB's most recent inflation projections from September may be undershot - owing to recent euro appreciation and increased downside risks to growth - expectations are hardening that the ECB will eventually move to expand its QE programme. 

However, with consensus on the Governing Council yet to coalesce, policy is expected to remain unchanged at today's meeting. A dovish press conference rhetoric, however, should leave the door open for expanded QE in the near future, possibly at the ECB's December meeting, says Lloyds Bank.

Domestically, comments from the BoE's Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the release of retail sales data will provide the focus. Having previously tracked the position of other internal members on the MPC, Cunliffe's remarks may not shift perceptions of the BoE's policy stance, even if they did allude to monetary policy. 

Meanwhile, further growth in retail sales volumes seems likely in September afer August's modest 0.2% gain. Already available retail surveys for September suggest that annual growth is likely to have picked up. While strength in these surveys appears exaggerated by calendar effects, the ONS data is expected to better adjust for these and look for another modest gain of 0.2% in September, implying growth of 4.6% on a year ago, added Lloyds Bank.