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Daily Economic Outlook: 22 April, 2015

  • The minutes of the BOE's April MPC meeting (0830 GMT) likely to show a fourth consecutive unanimous vote for unchanged policy. Despite BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane's recent comments that further policy easing remained an option, he is not expected to have voted for a cut. 

  • It will be interesting to see whether the recent modest depreciation of sterling eased some of the concerns, noted in the March minutes, that currency strength could add to disinflationary pressure. The MPC's take on the labor market data through to January, where earnings growth underwhelmed market expectations, could also be a focus for markets.

  • The European Commission's consumer confidence indicator (1400 GMT) will provide a further update on euro area trends. According to Lloyds Bank, confidence has risen sharply in the first few months of this year and another rise, to an all-time high of -2.2, is expected for April.  The lower oil price and the ECB's QE programme may both be helping to boost confidence.  

  • US existing home sales (1400 GMT) are forecast to have risen by 3% in March. However, this would still leave sales below their end 2014 level.  Recent months have seen a sizeable gap open up between sales of new and existing homes. The former are more than 20% higher than a year ago, while the latter are up less than 5%. With the supply of new homes relatively limited, due to the lack of recent construction, buyers' interest in existing homes may be set to pick up.

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