Daily Economic Outlook: 20th July, 2015

Today is set to be a very quiet start to what is an exceedingly light week for new economic data. There are no data releases of note today and the only 'first tier' releases later in the week are UK retail sales (Thurs) and 'flash' PMI estimates for China and the euro area on Friday. 

With FOMC members now moving into 'purdah', prior to next week's policy meeting, there is unlikely to be anything much this week to help fuel speculation, expects Lloyds Bank. Market is interestly watching when the Fed is likely to make its first move to tighten monetary policy. A new WSJ poll (see chart) suggests that in the wake of Fed Chair Yellen's recent comments most economists expect a September rate hike. In contrast markets are still pricing in a later move. 

Given the lack of data it is likely, in the absence of further developments in the Greek crisis or major fluctuations in the Chinese stock market, that markets will fall back on speculation about the next moves in monetary policy. Minutes from the July RBA meeting and the June BOJ meeting that will be released on Tuesday morning will provide some fuel for this debate, says Lloyds Bank. The more up to date Australian minutes will be of more interest. In particular any information these provide on how much further the RBA would like the Aussie dollar to slide. The Japanese minutes, which are for the last but one meeting are more out of date but could still provide some evidence of whether the BoJ is likely to ease policy further, adds Lloyds Bank.