Daily Economic Outlook: 12th October, 2015

With some markets closed for the U.S. Columbus Day holiday and a light data calendar, the focus for participants will be the upcoming heavy flow of communication from central bank speakers. The coming week sees a further generous helping of Fed speak, following on from last week's barrage with a further 6 appearances scheduled.

Domestic policy comments will also come from hawkish MPC members McCafferty and Weale, arch-dove Haldane, as well as the first views of new member Gertjan Vlieghe.

Monday's slate sees a speech from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, who last week still signalled a 2015 liftoff remained appropriate. With comments also due from Chicago Fed President Evans, who has long downplayed the prospect of a move this year, of most interest will be the stance of Fed Governor Brainard, who has previously expressed a cautious stance and is probably a centrist. Martin Weale's comments will be scrutinised for how close he is to voting for a UK policy tightening.

Despite the Fed's recent rhetoric - including specific references downplaying the apparent softness in the September employment report from key FOMC members, such as New York Fed President Dudley - markets remain unconvinced of the likelihood of liftoff in December this year, or even by March 2016.

Upcoming data releases this week - including CPI and retail sales - seem unlikely to shift meaningfully this assessment. International developments still appear key to the likelihood of liftoff in both the US and UK, with this week's Chinese data, including on international trade and trends in lending, of particular interest, says Lloyds Bank.