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DAILY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK : 2nd June, 2015

  • A relatively busy calendar looms in Europe today, with German labour market data coming ahead of the aggregate euro area CPI reading. A firmer-than-expected outturn in yesterday's preliminary German CPI release lends support to the expectation for euro area annual inflation to post its first positive reading in May since last November. Alongside a rise in headline annual CPI to 0.2%, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will also be closely watched for underlying price pressures and Lloyds Bank forecasts this to have firmed to 0.7%.  

  • Following yesterday's modest rise in the UK manufacturing PMI, today's survey focus will be on the construction PMI. Having softened from 60.1 to 54.2 between February and April, some stabilisation in sentiment is expected in May, with the headline measure forecast to rise to 55.0. Domestically, the spotlight will be shared with BoE mortgage approvals for April. In March, approvals softened to 61.3k although still activity remains over 4% higher compared to December. So far, the data for April have pointed to an acceleration in activity. The RICS survey reported a rise in expected sales and new buyer enquiries. Meanwhile, BBA data, which accounts for almost two-thirds of mortgages granted, surged by over 7% in April alone. The BoE approvals is likely to resume its ascent higher with a 65.0k print, expects Lloyds Bank.

  • In the US, March factory orders posted a decent rebound following seven months of consecutive decline. Nevertheless, the weakness in durable goods orders suggests that factory orders activity likely stalled in April.

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