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Czech CNB meeting likely not to bring any change in monetary policy

Macroeconomic indicators have been besting expectations, with gross value added posting very solid results in Q4 14 and even better results in Q1 15. 

More importantly, inflation has surprised on upside, removing another argument for an increase in the EUR/CZK floor. 

Wage growth, which remains weak, but this justification has diminished somewhat after wage growth surprised on the upside in Q1.

The EUR/CZK rate moved further down and thus can be seen as an anti-inflationary factor

"The FX intervention policy will be exited in Q3 16. Before the exit, the slight possibility of an interest rate cut to negative territory if a high degree of speculative demand might force the CNB to step into the market to defend its commitment", says Societe Generale.

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