Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 95.52 (+0.06%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.19%, Franc -0.02%, Yen -0.77%, GBP -0.29%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.15%, Franc -0.18%, Yen -0.96%, GBP +0.33%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.12

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support                      

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09            

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132

Economic release today –

• Services sentiment for September came at 10, consumer confidence at -8.2, Industrial confidence at -1.7, Economic sentiment at 104.9, and business climate at 0.45.

Commentary –

• The euro continues to trade within a small band. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. However, in the short run, Euro might ride higher.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.3

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34

Economic release today –

• Net lending to individual grew to £4.5 billion and consumer credit to £1.574 billion.
• M4 money supply grew by 0.9 percent in August, up 5.4 percent from a year ago.
• GFK consumer confidence report for September will be released at 23:00 GMT.

Commentary –

• The pound is treading water around 1.3 area, the best performer this week. In the short term, we expect the pound to drop towards 1.2 area. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 101.7

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• Tokyo and national CPI data will be released at 23:30 GMT, along with unemployment report and overall household spending.
• Industrial production data will be released at 23:50 GMT.
• BoJ will release summary of options at 23:50 GMT.

Commentary –

• The yen declined as equities rally on OPEC deal.  Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.971

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc is likely to move in line with the euro. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.