Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 95.49 (-0.04%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.06%, Franc +0.15%, Yen -0.17%, GBP +0.07%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.03%, Franc -0.03%, Yen -0.18%, GBP -0.43%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.122

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support                      

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09            

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132

Economic release today –

• Industrial production declined by 0.5 percent in July.

Commentary –

• The euro is almost flat this week so far. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. However, in the short run, Euro might ride higher.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.32

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34

Economic release today –

• Unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent in July. Wages are up 2.1 percent excluding bonus and up 2.3 percent including it.

Commentary –

• The pound is the worst performer of the week. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 102.7

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• Industrial production declined by 0.4 percent, down -4.2 percent from a year ago.

Commentary –

• The yen lost grounds as the dollar rebounded and risk aversion faded.  Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.975

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• Zew survey expectations rose by 2.7 percent in September.

Commentary –

• Franc is moving in line with the euro again. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.