Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 96.54 (-0.26%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.30%, Franc +0.47%, Yen +0.10%, GBP -0.53%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +1.15%, Franc +0.64%, Yen +1.10%, GBP +0.43%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.11

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09   

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.116, Short term – 1.116

Economic release today –

• Services sentiment rose to 11.1 in July from 10.9
• Industrial confidence improved to -2.4 from -2.8
• Business climate improved to 0.39 from 0.22
• Economic sentiment rose to 104.6 from 104.4
• Consumer confidence remained flat at -7.9

Commentary –

• Euro bounced back from support as Fed kept rates on hold. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.316

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34

Economic release today –

• Nationwide house price index rose 5.2 percent y/y in July.
• GFK consumer confidence will be released at 23:00 GMT.

Commentary –

• The pound is treading water around 1.31 awaiting further cue. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 104.8

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 100

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• National and Tokyo CPI will be released at 23:30 GMT, along with unemployment report and household spending.
• Industrial production and Retail trade will be released at 23:50 GMT.

Commentary –

• Yen gained on weaker dollar, focus is on BoJ tomorrow. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.98

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc turned green against the dollar for the week. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.