Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 96.87 (-0.28%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.01%, Franc -0.15%, Yen +0.73%, GBP -0.57%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.12%, Franc -0.63%, Yen -1.65%, GBP -0.08%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.1

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support

• Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.10, Short term – 1.10  

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.145, Short term – 1.12

Economic release today –

• ECB kept interest rates on hold.

Commentary –

• Euro testing support of 1.1 area. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.314

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.25, Short term – 1.25 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.5, Medium term – 1.38, Short term – 1.35

Economic release today –

• Retail sales declined -0.9 percent in June, up 4.3 percent from a year back.

Commentary –

• The pound is the best performer this week but down marginally against the dollar. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 106.6

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 100

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• All industry activity index declined 1 percent in May.

Commentary –

• Yen rose sharply today as Kuroda rejected Helicopter money but stimulus fear still weighs as he keeps other tools open. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.99

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• Trade balance for June came at 3.56 billion.

Commentary –

• Franc is moving in line with the euro. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.