Currency market weekly Outlook:

Previous Week

US dollar has lost more than 1% after the Jackson Hole symposium. US Fed chairman has kept the door open for a future rate cut but warned there will be a slowdown in the US economy due to the US-China trade war. The downside of the dollar index is limited as an escalation of the US-China trade war has increased demand for Safe-haven assets like dollar, yen and Swiss franc.

DXY has jumped more than 50 pips from the previous week low 97.17 and closed at 97.63.

The precious metal hits 6-year high on US-China trade war escalation and dovish monetary policy stance by the Fed. It hits high of $1555 and is currently trading around $1542.20.

US 10 year bond yield continues to trade lower and lost more than 12% in the past two trading days after dovish comment from Fed Chairman. It is currently trading at  1.458%. The yield curve between US 10 year and 2 year got inverted which increases the chance of recession.

Weekly Technical:

EURUSD:

Major trend reversal level- 1.1185

Near term support- 1.1095/1.0250

Near term resistance – 1.1185, 1.12300

USDJPY:

Major trend reversal level- 106.70

Near term support- 104.60/103

Near term resistance – 106.70/107.50

USDCHF

Major trend reversal level- 0.9660

Near term support- 0.9660/0.9540

Near term resistance – 0.9820/0.9900

USDCAD

Major trend reversal level- 1.335

Near term support- 1.32490/1.3180

Near term resistance – 1.3350/1.3435

Gold

Major trend reversal level- $1565

Near term support- $1498/$1470

Near term resistance – $1565/$1600

WTI Crude

Major trend reversal level- $50.50

Near term support- $53.50/$52

Near term resistance – $54.75/$57.

Major Economic events for the week

US Core Durable goods orders m/m – Monday (12:30 PM GMT)

German Ifo Business climate- Monday (8:00 PM GMT)

US CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday (2:00 PM GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q -  Thursday (12:30 PM GMT)

US Personal spending m/m- Friday (12:30 PM GMT)