Currency depreciation likely to lead to major export re-alignment

Dollar's rise and counterparts' drop, especially since 2014 is likely to lead to global re-alignment of exports over the coming years.

Currency depreciation can be classified into three categories based on the main source of depreciation -

Commodity driven 

Sharp drop in commodities have led to the depreciation of these currencies. Though these depreciation is creating some economic headwinds, they are also providing some cushion of relief in terms of domestic currency and helping them to keep up the production. Though these economies' export share is large, they might not benefit much from the depreciation other than relief and their recovery might not happen until commodities recover. Countries like Russia, Australia, Colombia, Chile fall in this category.

Monetary policy driven 

Divergence in monetary policies with United States has been key driver for these currencies. These currencies would be major benefactor of currency depreciation. These economies have strong manufacturing and services base. Exports are likely to gain in these economies.

Hot money flow driven 

Countries in this category are mainly from emerging market, where outflow of money led to heavy depreciation of these currencies. Main driver of depreciation has been structural weakness in the economy. While lower exchange rate, likely to balance current account by increasing exports and reducing imports. However, currencies may not recover unless structural weakness is fixed. Countries like India, Indonesia are in this category.

Now first group is export neutral and import negative. Second group is export positive and import negative. Third group is export positive and very import negative.

Crux of the problem is, in absence of imports, exports unlikely to grow much and US alone, which is planning to reign on deficit can't provide much support.