China effect likely to depress Germany's ZEW

One problem with Germany's this month ZEW survey, which was conducted over the 10 first days of the month, is the increased volatility displayed in markets over that period, the Dax moved down by around 2.5% twice and twice recovered, so replies may well have been influenced by the "mood" of the day.

"In September, the ZEW investor economic sentiment indicator to have dropped to 14.3 from 25 before, affected negatively by the increased market turbulence surrounding the economic outlook in China. Also the assessment of current conditions is likely to have softened although remaining at a historically high level", says Societe Generale.  

However, the overall sentiment on future economic activity should have declined. For the German economic outlook, it will be more concerned in the case there is a material downward trend in the assessment of current conditions. For Q3, most data still suggest robust growth.