China and Indonesia continued to deteriorate

Two countries that stood out in the earlier analysis were China, for the sheer USD scale of deterioration, and Indonesia, for the worsening in key ratios. 2014 proved to be more challenging still. 

"The analysis indicates that from end-2008 to end-2013, net foreign liabilities for the private sector deteriorated by USD 1.4tn. By Q3-2014, this situation had deteriorated further to USD 2.1tn. Overall debt/GDP ratios seem to have worsened in H1-2014 before stabilising, yet the scale and slope of increase is reminiscent of Guilin's karst mountains", says Standard Chartered.

Given the size of China's economy, measurement in USD terms is likely to render results on the impressive end of the spectrum. Looking at relative measures, other potential areas of vulnerability can be identified. Analysts previously flagged metrics that concerned us with regard to both Indonesia and Turkey. 

Turkey's metrics stabilised in 2014, although the recent election results have rightly raised significant concerns over policy direction. Turkey also saw no clear improvement in stock-level measures of vulnerability.