China April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery

China will release April trade data on 8 May. The holiday distortion should be removed, and expect exports to have increased 3.5% y/y, versus a 15.0% contraction in March.
 
This will still be below the 4.6% average in Q1, reflecting a modest recovery in exports amid varied stages of recovery in the US, the EU and Japan. 

Imports are expected to have dropped by 10.5% y/y, versus a 12.7% drop in March, as domestic demand remains sluggish amid China's economic slowdown. 

The import price index fell 10.5% in March, the most since November 2009. The trade surplus is expected to have widened to USD 42.9bn from USD 3.1bn in March. 

"We think exports will gradually pick up in H2 on the recovery in key-trading partner economies, and expect the trade surplus to increase further in H2", Says Standard Chartered.