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Central Bank of Turkey keeps losing FX reserves

Monday, June 29, 2015 7:10 AM UTC

This is a crucial week for Turkish politics, which adds to the risk off sentiment already imposed by developments in Greece and a coalition government will be formed.

Meanwhile latest CBT data, noted by SocGen, show continued decline in FX reserves, driven by

1) less proceeds from exporters
2) continued sizeable FX auctions by CBT to fight lira volatility

In May, CBT sold $830mn via FX auctions, and this amount is likely to have increased in June as the CB had to sell more FX in the aftermath of the elections, according to Commerzbank.

Even during a good year when the current-account deficit narrowed significantly, the CB has been steadily losing reserves trying to cover for external imbalances. The developments support our view that CBT will have to tighten rates by 150bps later this year when the Fed begins to tighten.

"We expect increased volatility in TRY in coming months, but a calmer picture once rates have been raised - we see USD-TRY at 2.75 by end-2015", adds SocGen.

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Central Bank of Turkey keeps losing FX reserves

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