Canada’s retail sales likely to have rebounded in November

Canadian retail sales data for the month of November is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the retail sales are expected to have recovered by rising 0.3 percent after one of the largest monthly falls seen since the financial crisis.

Auto sales mainly contributed to the October pullback but preliminary data imply that headwinds have continued throughout the fourth quarter, with another fall in sales activity for November. Meanwhile, higher prices at the pump might give a modest tailwind to gasoline stations while sales of building materials are expected to feel a pinch from the deceleration in housing starts. Black Friday shopping might have little impact on the headline print given the timing, with most sales starting on 27th November, and a growing share of holiday shopping shifting to online platforms that are not captured in the headline print.

“Meanwhile, real retail sales are likely to see little change on the heels of contractions in September and October, owing to the muted nominal increase and higher consumer goods prices, which implies continued softness in quarterly consumption data”, added TD Economics.