Canada - A flat GDP growth expected in Q1-2015; still see a Q2 contraction

Canada's economy is slowing as headwinds from the oil-price shock persist. Q1 GDP growth (released on 29 May) is expected to have been flat q/q, slowing from 2.4% in Q4. 

GDP growth for January and February was -0.2% m/m and 0.0%, respectively. The data is not expected to reflect the full extent of the oil-price shock and still expect a growth contraction in Q2 as oil-related investment ebbs.

"We also worry about the sizeable inventory build-up lately, which we think could unwind in Q2. We now expect growth to recover slowly in Q3, allowing Canada to avoid a technical recession", said Standard Chartered in a report on Friday.