CBR's key rate likely at 8% by end of 2016

In the longer run the RUB may remain vulnerable to the external turmoil because of the weak economy, limited access to western capital markets and the CBR's easing policy. 

However, on the positive side, if the oil market remains stable, then all other factors can be ignored, and the RUB may stabilise within the 60-65 range against the USD. USD/RUB pair target is remained unchanged at 62, says Nordea Bank.

If the RUB remains relatively strong near 60 versus the USD, then the CBR may become more dovish. However, as of today no key rate cut is expected at the coming meeting in October.

"Due to the lower inflation numbers during the coming months, however, the risk of rate cuts will remain relatively high. We expect the key rate at 10.5% by the end of 2015 and at 8% by the end of 2016", argues Nordea Bank.