CBR may cut rate by 50bp at next meeting

The only factor that have to be changed compared to the previous press release is on the assessment of Russia's external conditions. Having separately highlighted external risks in the September press release, the CBR excluded them this time.

This could be for one of two reasons - either the outlook on conditions was not imperilled by the high probability of a December lift-off by the Fed or the current decision was not influenced by the external backdrop. 

"We consider this approach to be deficient and can imagine a situation where the CBR could find itself leaning against the Fed at the next meeting. Thus, at this stage we believe it is highly unrealistic to expect the CBR to be ready to cut by more than 50bp at the next meeting", argues Societe Generale.