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Briferendum Series: Sterling rises as polls and betting odds reverse course

Risk affinity has helped global markets today, where equities are flying across the globe and British sterling is up more than 2 percent against Dollar. Several polls over the weekend have suggested that public mood may have taken a major shift after the attack on MP Jo Cox, who died after being shot and stabbed. Investigations have suggested that the man is a strong supporter of Britain’s exit from the union, while MP Cox was a vocal supporter of Britain inside the European Union.

A Survation poll on the mail on Sunday showed that remain camp has moved to a 3 percentage points lead over the exiteers. YouGov in Sunday Times gave the “Remain” camp 44-43 lead. Two other polls by the Opinium and the Observer show that both camps are tied. These polls are probably pointing to a stark change in the mindset of people. Both camps had suspended campaigns till yesterday in response to the murder of the MP.

Betting market has also seen a reversal in course. Implied probability of a ‘Remain’ vote has jumped from 65 percent on Friday to 72 percent as of today. Odds of remain in the Betfair dropped to 59 percent last week.

The pound is currently trading at 1.464 against the dollar, while S&P 500 is up more than 1 percent, German DAX is up 2.8 percent and UK’s FTSE100 is up more than 2.1 percent.

 

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