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Brexit risks – justified or overestimated – Part 1

Biggest risk threatening UK economy in 2016 is Britain's referendum on whether to stay in European Union (reformed) or not. Though UK Prime Minister David Cameron has promised the referendum to be held before end of 2017, there exists strong possibility that it will be held in this year (probably sometime in third quarter).

However, where there are risks, opportunity exist too.

One of such biggest opportunity would be too buy Pound, which has been taking a beating for past few weeks and reached to lowest level in 5 years. In addition to that, Pound is closing in to, some significant support levels at a time, when Bank of England (BOE) is not really easing policy, as a matter of fact, it is looking into opportunities to adjust policy rates higher.

Pound's move against Dollar in 2013/14 (it was different then though) suggests how big the opportunity could be. Pound in hope for tightening in monetary policy rose from 1.48 per Dollar to as high as 1.72 per Dollar, in just matter of a year.

At that FED wasn't hiking rates, nevertheless any re-pricing of moves from Bank of England (BOE) would be very large, at least 1500 pips. Currencies of central banks who are still easing, such as ECB and BOJ would pose greater opportunity.

On the other hand, Brexit could very well be bad for UK, making Bank of England (BOE) further dovish and leading to further drop in Pound.

So, as we see it - key questions are:

  • Will Britons vote to leave European Union or not?
  • If they do, since it is not end of world.......is market overpricing risks?

We believe answer to these two questions, would decide UK's viz. a viz. Pound's fate in the coming years.

  • Market Data
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