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Brazil retail sales likely to indicate persisting drop in Q4 consumption

Brazil retail sales for the month of October is likely to drop to -1.1% mom as expected by the market consensus, while the retail sales year on year are expected to record a decline to -8.3%.

There is a sharp rise in Brazil's unemployment in recent months, and sales trend is not upto the mark. The country's economy might be heading for a full year consumption decline, as the labor market deterioration is expected to accelerate in last quarter of this year.

"Given the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in recent months, and the trend in sales, we estimate that retail sales declined 7.2% yoy in October", says Societe Generale in a research note.

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