Brazil inflation unlikely to moderate before January 2016

Brazil's IBGE inflation IPCA (%) month on month basis for November is expected by the market consensus to be  slightly rising to 0.95 from that of its previous month's 0.85%.

The inflation yoy is likely to be 10.42, rising from 9.93 of October as per the consensus. There was hike in the food prices, which came as a surprise this year and the currency depreciation was another upside risk to the medium-term inflation.

"Inflation is unlikely to fall before January 2016 when the effect of adjustments to regulated prices end. Inflation will likely fall substantially in January, followed by further deceleration throughout most of 2016", says Societe Generale in a research note. 

The BRL depreciation pressure might be able to keep the inflation above the central bank's target level throughout the next year.