BoK will probably keep base rate on hold

Bank of Korea cut the rate unexpectedly in March, in response to other central banks' policy moves and on a slower recovery in consumption and exports.

It is believed the BoK will be data-driven from now. Last month's policy meeting saw strongly opposing views on the February rate cut. Mixed signals from recent macro data continue, owing to the Lunar New Year bias. 

Industrial production grew 2.6% m/m in February, but dropped 4.7% y/y. Exports continued to drop, by 4.2% y/y in March, due to low oil prices, while the trade surplus expanded by USD 8.4bn on a more rapid decline in imports.

"The Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep the base rate on hold at 1.75% on 9 April", said Standard Chartered in a report on Friday. 

Low CPI inflation of 0.4% y/y will be a concern and likely supports a further cut, but a move on 9 April may be too early.