Australia’s CPI inflation is likely to have fallen to a 16-year low in Q1

A fall in Australia CPI inflation (02.30 BST) to a 16-year low of 1.0% in Q1, from 1.7% in Q4, may grab the headlines. But the slower downward trend in underlying inflation likely to be of more concern. 

The 13% q/q decline in petrol prices will translate into a similar fall in CPI automotive fuel, which will subtract 0.5% from the overall consumer price index. 

A rebound in food prices after the unusually small 0.1% q/q rise in the fourth quarter of last year and another large rise in the housing component will probably offset some of this to leave total consumer prices down by 0.1% q/q.