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Australian employment grows strongly in March, employment growth likely to slow in months ahead

Australian labor market recorded strong results in March. Employment grew by 26k after an upwardly revised rise of 10.7k in February. While the ongoing strength is good news, leading indicators are pointing towards slower growth in employment in months ahead, noted ANZ in a research report.

Full-time jobs dominated the gain with a rise of 48.3k, while part-time jobs dropped 22.6k. While the full-time/part-time split jumps around month to month, the annual growth rates tell a compelling story- full-time jobs rose 3.4 percent year-on-year, while part-time employment rose only 0.4 percent.

The jobless rate rose to 5 percent after falling in the prior month, while the participation rate rose to 65.7 percent. The underemployment rate also rose to 8.2 percent.

Throughout the states, jobless rate rose in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, while it dropped in New South Wales and Victoria. The recent strength in labor market is in line with the RBA’s business liaison showing firms’ hiring and investment intentions remain strong. But as the minutes from the central bank’s April meeting acknowledged “forward-looking indicators of labor demand had been mixed in recent months”.

“Our ANZ Labour Market Indicator suggests that employment growth will slow, but that the unemployment rate should remain broadly flat. If we are correct, this should keep the RBA on the sidelines. The next major data input for the RBA is the Q1 CPI due out next week, where we expect a 0.4 percent q/q and 1.7 percent y/y result for underlying inflation”, added ANZ.

At 11:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Australian Dollar was neutral at 30.6174 while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was slightly bullish at 59.1146 more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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