Market Roundup
• BOJ report shows many board members saw need for rate hikes
• Trump optimistic about Ukraine peace talks with Zelenskiy
• Fed minutes in focus on light-data week
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 Sweden Trade Balance (Nov) 1.50B previous
•11:00 France Jobseekers Total (Nov) 3,150.8K previous
•11:30 Reserve Assets Total (Nov) 1,709.78B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased slightly on Monday as attention shifted to the Fed’s year-end meeting. Investor focus on the holiday-curtailed week will be on minutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank cut rates earlier this month and projected just one more cut for next year while traders have priced in at least two more. The prospect of the Fed cutting rates next year has kept the dollar under pressure, while the spectre of a new Fed Chair that may be dovish and willing to lower rates looms large. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, was 0.08% lower at 97.953, on track for a 9.7% drop for the year, its steepest since 2017. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped slightly against the dollar on Monday as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year on Tuesday. With trading volumes light during the holiday-shortened week, market focus is firmly on the Fed’s meeting minutes.Looking ahead to 2026, investors are weighing when and by how much the U.S. central bank might cut rates. Traders are pricing in at least two rate reductions over the year, though expectations suggest no action before June. The Fed has signaled one additional cut next year, but divisions among policymakers have kept markets cautious about the outlook.Attention is also on the potential Fed chair nomination, as President Donald Trump is expected to name a successor to Powell, whose term ends in May. Any indication of Trump’s choice could influence market sentiment in the coming week.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as hawkish RBA sentiment and surging commodity prices supported Australian dollar. Silver climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time before sliding sharply lower in volatile trading on Monday. Copper set a record on Monday, as last week's sharp rally in Shanghai spilled into a Christmas holiday-curtailed global market.Looking ahead, attention turns to China’s December manufacturing PMI , along with U.S. jobless claims due Wednesday, which may provide the next directional catalyst. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Monday as investors assessed timing of more interest rate hikes in Japan and the possibility of intervention in thin end-of-year trading.Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need to continue raising rates, a summary of opinions at their policy meeting in December showed on Monday.The summary of opinions released on Monday showed many board members saw the need for further increases to the rate, which remained significantly negative in inflation-adjusted terms.Some board members said Japan’s ultra-low rates are weakening the yen and fueling inflation, signaling FX moves will be key in future rate-hike talks.The summary showed rising board confidence that Japan’s economy can absorb higher U.S. tariffs, allowing firms to continue raising wages next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks climbed to six-week highs on Monday, while the U.S. dollar hovered near a nearly three-month low amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, fueling a sharp rally in precious metals.
China’s A50 up 0.02%, Hang Sengwas up 0.02%,South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.71%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed on Monday as investors eyed Middle East tensions threatening supply, amid ongoing obstacles in the Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations.
Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.92%, to $61.20 per barrel at 0236 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 51 cents, or 0.9%, to $57.25.
Gold easing from near record highs on Monday as investors booked profits and easing geopolitical tensions cooled safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,512.74 per ounce, as of 0242 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 0.4% to $4,536.40 per ounce.
