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Asia Roundup: Australian dollar drops on weaker-than-expected jobs report, Asian shares falls, Gold slips, Oil little changed -December 11th,2025

Market Roundup

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Volume (QoQ) (Q3)  1.1%, -2.9% previous 

•Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4)    4.7, 4.1forecast,3.8 previous              

•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 452.9B,   -771.3B previous               

•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 96.8B, 655.7B

•Australia Employment Change (Nov) -21.3K, 20.0K forecast,41.1K previous                              

•Australia Full Employment Change (Nov) -56.5K,55.3K previous                         

•Australia Participation Rate (Nov) 66.7%,67.0% forecast,66.9% previous                         

•Australia Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.3%, 4.4% forecast,4.3% previous                         

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

• 08:30  Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)  0.00% forecast,0.00% previous                                   

•09:00   Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 6.3% forecast,6.3% previous                        

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•09:50   UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks                                                         

•10:00    Eurogroup Meetings

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as market participants digested less-hawkish-than-expected comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following a widely anticipated interest rate cut. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered rates by a quarter-point in an unusually divided vote, signaling it would likely pause further reductions while monitoring the labor market and inflation, which “remains somewhat elevated.The Fed’s updated projections contrast with market expectations for two additional 0.25% cuts in 2026, which would bring the funds rate to around 3.0%. Policymakers, however, foresee only one cut next year and one in 2027, with Wednesday’s move setting the policy range at 3.50%-3.75%. The projections also showed that six policymakers favor no cuts this year and seven expect no further reductions in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1708(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1737(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1649(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1603(SMA20).

GBP/USD:    Sterling edged lower on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a divided interest rate cut that left investors uncertain about the pace of easing next year. The Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in a divided vote on Wednesday but signalled that borrowing costs may not fall further as it waits for clearer signs of a cooling labour market and inflation that  remains somewhat elevated. While most policymakers expect they will need to cut rates again next year, an unprecedented six officials opposed even Wednesday's quarter-point move. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also declined to offer guidance on the timing of any further cuts. Investors now await U.S. jobs and inflation data for November next week, followed by a detailed third-quarter economic growth report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped from 3-month high on Thurdsay as investors digested latest Australian labor market figures.Australian employment fell in November by the most in nine months, while annual job growth slowed sharply from earlier in the year   further evidence that the labour market is cooling and potentially reducing pressure for a near-term rate hike.  Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that net employment fell by 23,100 in November, following a 41,200 surge in October. The result sharply missed market expectations for a 20,000 increase. Full-time employment accounted for most of the weakness, dropping by 56,500. Annual job growth slowed to 1.3% in November, down from 3.5% at the start of the year and now trailing the country’s 2% population growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6682(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6703(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6545(50%fib)

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as dollar   regained some ground   post Fed rate cut. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected rate cut on Wednesday and indicated it still anticipates one more quarter-point reduction in 2026.Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a potential BoJ rate hike as early as next week, highlighting a sharp contrast to the Fed’s dovish move. In a Dec. 2–9 survey, 90% of economists (63 of 70) predicted the Bank of Japan would lift short-term rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at its upcoming meeting.Following the BOJ’s October meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that early momentum in next spring’s wage negotiations would be a key factor in deciding the timing of any rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.58 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  155.44 (38.2%fib)  a break below could take the pair towards 154.55(Lower BB)

Equities Recap

Asian shares   dipped on Thursday  as market participants digested less-hawkish-than-feared comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after a widely expected interest rate cut.

Japan’s, Nikkei 225    was down   0.92%, South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.66%,Hang Seng was up  0.10 %

Commodities Recap

Gold slipped on Thursday from a near one-week high after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s split decision on interest rates left investors uncertain about next year’s easing, while silver hit another record high.

Spot gold   fell 0.4% to $4,210.72 per ounce, as of 0523 GMT, after touching its highest since December 5 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures  for February delivery gained 0.3% to $4,238.90 per ounce.

Oil prices were broadly stable on Thursday as investors shifted their focus back to Russia-Ukraine peace talks while watching for any fallout from a U.S. seizure of a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela.

Brent crude futures dipped 5 cents, or 0.08%, to $62.16 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 1 cent, or 0.02%, at $58.45 a barrel.

 

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