Market Roundup
- US Mortgage Market Index w/e 420.7, 420.30-prev
- US MBA Purchase Index w/e 169.8, 170.20-prev
- US Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1870.3, 1861.80-prev
- US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate w/e 3.96%, 3.99%-prev
- US ADP National Employment Feb 212.0k, f/c 220k, 250k-prev
- US Markit Comp Final PMI Feb 57.2, 56.80-prev
- US Markit Svcs PMI Final Feb 57.1, 57.00-prev
- US ISM N-Mfg PMI Feb 56.9, f/c 56.5, 56.70-prev
- US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Feb 59.4, f/c 61, 61.50-prev
- US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Feb 56.4, 51.60-prev
- US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Feb 56.7, 59.5-prev
- US ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Feb 49.7, 45.5-prev
- CA BoC Rate Decision N/A 0.75%, f/c 0.75%, 0.75%-prev
- BR CNI Factory Utilization Jan 81.5%, 81.00%-prev
- BR Industrial Output MM Jan 2%, f/c 1.5%, -3.20%-prev
- BR Industrial Output YY Jan -5.2%, f/c -4.7%, -2.90%-prev
- BR HSBC Services PMI Feb 52.3, 48.4-prev
- BR HSBC Composite PMI Feb 51.3, 49.2-prev
- BR Foreign Exchange Flows w/e -1.142b, 2.191b-prev
- Fed's Evans, citing low inflation, wants no rate hikes until 2016, costs of tightening monetary policy too late are low, raising rates too early could undermine economy
- Fed's Evans says low global inflation is a puzzle, Fed is extremely transparent compared to peers
- Fed's Evans not necessarily against removing 'patient' in March
- Kansas City Fed's George sticks with mid-year rate lift-off, not overly concerned w/weak inflation
- Fed's Beige Book shows U.S. economy expanding, oil & gas producers in certain districts anticipate capex cuts in 2015
- Germany says 3rd Greek aid package not on Eurogroup agenda
- Poland cuts rates by 50 bps to all-time low, more than expected
- Merkel says euro zone has hands full with existing Greek bailout programme
- BoE's Bailey says no banks have asked for advice on UK leaving EU
- IMF's Lagarde: Success of Greek reforms rest on implementation (MSNBC)
- Bk of Canada financial conditions in Canada eased materially in response to Jan rate cut, current degree of stimulus is still appropriate
- Russian FinMin proposes spending $60 billion from Reserve Fund in 2015 - Interfax
- Turkish economy minister expects more rate cuts from the central bank
- Moody's: Stronger US Dollar Is Credit Negative for US Multinationals
- Reuters Poll EUR/USD seen at 1.12 in 1 mos, 1.08 in 6 & 12 mos (1.13, 1.10, 1.10 in Feb)
- Reuters Poll USD/JPY seen at 120 in 1 mos, 123 in 6 mos, 126 in 12 mos (118,122,125 in Feb)
- US money market assets decreased by USD 5.85b in latest week (iMoneyNet)
Economic Data Ahead
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 166.3b)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e (previous 289.0b)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Retail Sales MM Jan (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.20%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Trade Balance G&S (AUD) Jan (consensus -950m, previous -436m)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Goods/Services Imports Jan (previous -1.00%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Goods/Services Exports Jan (previous 1.00%)
Key Events Ahead
- (2030 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speech
- (2030 ET/ 0130 GMT) Japan BOJ Kiuchi speaks in Maebashi
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD dropped to 119.45 against the yen after the release of US economic data but then recovered after being able to hold above 119.50 and approached daily highs as greenback reached new highs versus European currencies. The pair is still holding a bullish bias as it stands above 119.40 and a short term uptrend. The next sharp move could be from the NFP to be published on Friday.
USD/CAD: USD/CAD is stabilising on the 1.2413 level post a drop from 1.2542 after BoC left rates on hold. Pair could test key support in the upper 1.23 area shortly. The algos kicked in and USD/CAD scoured 1.2409 lows as WTI tested 51.95 highs. USD/CAD closing near the lows at around 1.2412, AUD/CAD 0.9704.
EUR/USD: Euro lost a key pillar of support today, as markets prepare for Thursday's ECB meeting. EUR/USD broke below January's floor and printed fresh 11-year lows. Euro remained indifferent to the Fed's Beige Book, with the pair navigating lows around 1.1075/70. As of writing the pair is retreating 0.91% at 1.1073 facing the next support at 1.0914. On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1218 would expose 1.1245.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD rose to the highest level in almost a week after ADP employment report, but then retreated erasing gains. The pair bottomed at 0.7802 but rebounded and currently trades at 0.7822, almost unchanged for the day. Resistances seen at 0.7845/ 0.7860/ 0.7900, with supports at 0.7795/ 0.7755/ 0.7725. The aussie is falling sharply versus the loonie and the kiwi. AUD/NZD is testing record lows at 1.0300 while AUD/CAD lost more than a hundred pips from the highs.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF rose almost 100 pips in a matter of minutes and printed a 7-week high of 0.9682 amid reports, that were later denied, that the Swiss Finance Minister thinks a new EUR/CHF floor should be considered. The pair gave up gains and was back to the 0.9620 area. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9630, with a 0.21% daily gain.
EUR/PLN: The Polish currency strengthened as much as 0.8 percent to 4.1316 per euro, the highest level since July 23. EUR/PLN jumps 4.1670-4.1840 in a knee-jerk reaction after the nation's central bank surprised markets by cutting rates by a deeper than expected 50 basis points to 1.50%, an all-time low. Surprising rate move suggests zloty stays under pressure in short-term. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 4.1475.
