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America’s Roundup: Dollar weighed down by trade optimism, slowdown fears, Wall Street gains, Gold eases, Oil rises on hopes for US-China trade deal-November 2nd,2019

Market Roundup

• Price of U.S. oil increases 2%

•  China’s factory activity expands at fastest pace in over 2 years

• U.S. job growth slows less than expected in October

• US Oct Nonfarm Payrolls 128K, 89K forecast, 180K previous                            

• US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.0%,3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous

• US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous

• US Oct Average Weekly Hours 34.4, 34.4 forecast, 34.4 previous

• US Oct Government Payrolls    -3.0K, 13.0K previous

• US Oct Manufacturing Payrolls  -36K, -50K forecast, -5K previous            

• US Oct Participation Rate  63.3%,63.2% forecast, 63.2% previous            

• US Oct Private Nonfarm Payrolls  131K, 80K forecast, 167K previous

• US Oct Unemployment Rate 3.6%,3.6% forecast, 3.5% previous

• Brazil Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI     52.2, 51.9 forecast, 53.4   previous

• Canada Oct RBC Manufacturing PMI 51.2, 51.0 previous

• US Oct Manufacturing PMI 51.3    , 51.5 forecast, 51.1 previous

• US Sep Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5%,0.2%   forecast, -0.3% previous 

• US   Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.7, 46.4 forecast, 46.3 previous   

• US   Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.3, 48.9 forecast, 47.8 previous                   

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• No economic data scheduled

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No Major events scheduled

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro gained against the dollar on Friday,                 after data showed a mixed view on the economy, and as optimism that the United States and China will reach a deal to end their trade war reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback. The dollar initially gained after U.S. jobs growth slowed less than expected in October, while wages gained and hiring in the prior two months was stronger than previously estimated. The U.S. currency was unable to hold onto the gains, however, and was further dented after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell below economists’ expectations.hs was stronger than previously estimated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1196 (200 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.214 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1130 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1074 (21 DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling held below $1.30 on Friday, little changed by Nigel Farage’s announcement his Brexit Party would fight the ruling Conservatives for every seat if Britain’s prime minister does not abandon his Brexit deal.Farage said Boris Johnson had until Nov. 14 to agree to his demand.The pound traded beneath the $1.30 benchmark, at $1.2961 , up 0.2% against a weaker dollar. Investors fear a full field of Brexit Party candidates could win over pro-Brexit voters from the ruling Conservatives and thereby boost the leftist Labour Party. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3010 (21st Oct high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3090 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2885 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2800 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as  higher oil prices and weaker dollar boosted Canadian dollar across the board. The U.S. dollar dipped against a basket of major currencies on Friday after mixed U.S economic data. The price of oil rose on Friday on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a surprise bounce in Chinese manufacturing activity. At   (1819 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3149 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3172 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3220 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100 (9 DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday, as better-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers and strong factory data from China reduced demand for safe haven currencies. U.S. job growth slowed less than expected in October, while hiring in the prior two months was stronger than previously estimated, offering assurance that consumers would continue to prop up the slowing economy for a while. The Fed cut interest rates for a third time this year, but signalled there would be no further reductions unless the economy takes a turn for the worse. The dollar was 0.25 percent  higher versus the Japanese yen at 108.24. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.58 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.68 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European shares clocked their best day in over a week on Friday, as upbeat jobs data from the United States and a surprise bounce in Chinese manufacturing tempered nerves around slowing global growth.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax ended up  by 0.73 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.56 percent.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit record high in early trading on Friday, after data showed U.S. jobs growth slowed less than expected in October.

At (19:10 GMT),Dow Jones was up by 0.92 percent, S&P 500 was up 0.85 percent, Nasdaq was up by 0.91  percent.

Treasuries Recap

Yields on U.S. government bonds jumped on Friday morning after domestic job growth slowed less than expected in October, suggesting the Federal Reserve was justified in signaling on Wednesday that it would pause interest rate cuts going forward.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 1.2 basis points to 1.703%. The two-year yield, a proxy for market expectations of interest rate moves, was up 3 basis points to 1.556%

Commodities Recap

Gold prices eased on Friday as better-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers and strong factory data from China bolstered sentiment for riskier assets.

Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $1,510.82 per ounce at 12:13 p.m. EDT (1613 GMT). Prices were set for a weekly gain.U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,513.20.              

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and stronger-than-expected economic data in both countries, including U.S. employment and Chinese manufacturing activity numbers.

Brent crude as up $1.16, or 2%, at $60.78 a barrel by 12:01 p.m. ET (1601 GMT), but remained on course for a drop of about 2% for the week.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.1, or 2%, to $55.28 a barrel, a weekly loss of more than 2.4%.

By Srikanth G
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