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America’s Roundup: Dollar up as market eye central bank rate policies, Wall Street slumps, Gold little changed, Oil prices slump to pre-Ukraine crisis levels on economic jitters-December 7th,2022

Market Roundup

•US  Imports 3334.80B, 31.30B previous

•US Exports 256.60B, 258.00B previous

•US Oct Trade Balance  -78.20B,-80.00B forecast, -73.30B previous

•Canada Oct Exports 67.04B,, 66.37B previous

•Canada Oct Trade Balance 1.21B, 1.20B forecast,  1.14B previous

•Canada Oct Imports 65.82B, 65.23B previous

•US Redbook (YoY) 5.7%,10.4% previous

•New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.6%,2.4% previous

•Canada Nov Ivey PMI  51.4,51.0 forecast,   50.1 previous

•Canada Nov Ivey PMI n.s.a 51.5, 51.4  previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT )

•00:30 Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q3)     1.3% previous

•00:30 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q3) 6.2% forecast, 3.6% previous

•00:30 Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q3)   0.2% previous

•00:30  Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q3)       4.3% previous

• 00:30 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.7% forecast, 0.9% previous

•00:30  Australia Building Approvals (MoM) -6.0% forecast, -8.1% previous

• 00:30 Australia Private House Approvals -2.2% forecast, -7.8% previous

•03:00   China Nov Trade Balance (USD)  79.05B   forecast, 85.15B previous

•03:00   China Nov Imports (YoY)  -5.0% forecast, -0.7% previous

•03:00 China Nov Exports (YoY)  -3.6% forecast,    -0.3% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•01:30   Japan BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks      

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday  as were investors concerned about a global economic slowdown in the run-up to a raft of major central bank decisions. The European Central Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England all meet next week to discuss monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia offered a glimpse of decisions to come after raising rates to a 10-year high and sticking with its projection that more hikes are needed to cool inflation. European Central Bank policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday interest rates will go up again but are now  very near  their neutral level. German industrial orders recovered more than expected in October. That immediately failed to strength the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0551(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0614(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0460(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards  1.0431(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against dollar on Tuesday after data showed UK construction growth ebbed in November. Growth in Britain's construction industry slowed to a crawl in November as high borrowing costs and the gloomy economic outlook crimped building work, a survey showed on Tuesday. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a three-month low of 50.4 from 53.2 in October, barely above the 50 dividing line between growth and contraction. A   poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 52.0.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2328( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2399(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2126(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2116(38.2%fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a one-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as equity markets and oil prices tumbled, while investors braced for a possible smaller interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada.  Money markets are betting on a 25-basis-point rate increase when the BoC meets to set policy on Wednesday, with a roughly 25% chance that the central bank would hike by 50 basis points as it did in October. U.S. crude prices settled 3.5% lower at $74.25 a barrel as concerns about global demand offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil.The Canadian dollar was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3665 to the greenback, or 73.18 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest level since Nov. 4 at 1.3675. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3665 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3705(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3558(5DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against Japanese yen on Tuesday as the market weighed how long the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high and  restrictive  to the U.S. economy. Better-than-expected U.S. services industry data spooked investors on Monday and raised fears that the Fed might stick longer with aggressive rate increases. The ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed all meet next week to discuss monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday offered a glimpse of decisions to come after raising interest rates to decade highs and sticking with a prediction of more hikes ahead. Strong resistance can be seen at 137.30(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.68(14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.06(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 132.59(Aug 15th low).

Equities Recap

European shares fell on Tuesday, dragged down by weakness in healthcare and rate-sensitive tech stocks, with investors concerned about a global economic slowdown in the run-up to a raft of major central bank decisions.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up  by  0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up  by 0.17 percent.                               

Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession.

Dow Jones closed up  by  0.10% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.12% percent, Nasdaq settled down  by 0.18%  percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices fell in a volatile market as the dollar stayed strong and economic uncertainty offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil and the prospects of a demand boost in China.

U.S. crude futures fell $2.68 to settle at $74.25 a barrel, while Brent settled down $3.33 at $79.35.

Gold firmed slightly on Tuesday as the dollar gave up some of its recent gains and U.S. Treasury yields retreated, with traders awaiting further direction from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike strategy.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,769.42 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. ET (1831) GMT, while moves remained fairly contained. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.1% at $1,782.4.

 

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