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America’s Roundup: Dollar rises versus yen, as risk appetite improves, Wall Street gains, Gold eases, Oil prices gains on U.S.-China trade deal hopes-November 5th,2019

Market Roundup

• US Oct All Car Sales 4.35M, 4.60M previous             

• US Oct All Truck Sales    12.19M, 12.54M previous

• US Oct ISM NY Business Conditions 47.7%, 42.8% previous

• US Oct ISM-New York Index 874.3, 875.4 previous           

• US Oct CB Employment Trends Index 110.10, 110.90 previous

• US Sep Durables Excluding Defense (MoM)  -1.3%,-1.2% previous

• US Sep Factory Orders (MoM) -0.6%,-0.5% forecast, -0.1% previous

• US Sep Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.1%,-0.2% previous   

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 21:45 Australia Oct AIG Services Index 51.5 previous         

• 23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) 3.0% previous

• 00:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index 0.0% previous    

• 01:45 China Oct Caixin Services PMI 52.8, 51.3 previous

• 03:30 Australia  Nov RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.75%,0.75% previous     

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 04:30 Australia  RBA Rate Statements                                    

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as investors awaited Christine Lagarde’s first speech as European Central Bank president, but hopes that the United States may choose not to impose tariffs on auto imports kept it near its highest level in weeks.Lagarde gives her first speech   as ECB chief, and markets are assuming she will stick with the easy policy script of her predecessor, Mario Draghi. The euro was down 0.23 percent at $1.1138.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was 0.36 percent higher at 97.47. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1176 (Daily High), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1194 (200 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1122 (100 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards   1.1086 (21 DMA).

GBP/USD: The pound slipped against the dollar Monday, as investors’ attention turned on political developments as election campaigning gets under way. With just over five weeks until the UK heads to the polls on Dec. 12, the Conservative party is leading in the polls and the risk of a “no-deal” Brexit is considered to have been reduced. The British currency slid to as low as $1.2886, down 0.35 percent on the day.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2980 (31st Oct high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2380 (10 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2882 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2741 (21 DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, keeping to a narrow trading range ahead of influential domestic data this week as stock markets were buoyed by prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China. U.S. crude oil futures were up 1.5% to $57.02 a barrel, boosted by flagging OPEC discussions of a deeper output cut next month as well as growing expectations of a U.S.-China trade deal. At (1845 GMT), the Canadian dollar was last trading 0.3% lower at 1.3148 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3163 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3215 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3104(9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2988 (Lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Monday, as signs of a US-China trade deal increased  demand for dollar. Washington and Beijing on Friday said they made progress in talks aimed at defusing a nearly 16-month-long trade war that has harmed the global economy, and U.S. officials said a deal could be signed this month. Markets drew further optimism from U.S. economic data last week that eased apprehensions of a slowdown fuelled by the trade war. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.63 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.69 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.26 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.72 (50 DMA).

Equities Recap

Optimism over trade talks helped European shares close at their highest level in nearly two years on Monday, while a strong earnings report by Ryanair lifted Irish stocks to a more than one-year high.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by  0.92 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.35 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.08 percent.                

Wall Street’s three main indexes were set to open at record highs on Monday, buoyed by hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal and an improving domestic economy.

At (19:10 GMT) Dow Jones was up by 0.42 percent, S&P 500 was up by 0.46 percent, Nasdaq was  up by 0.65 percent.

Treasuries Recap

 U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as the market prepared for the Treasury Department to issue long-dated debt and as optimism that the United States and China will reach a deal to de-escalate their trade war boosted risk sentiment.

Benchmark 10-year notes  fell 15/32 in price to yield 1.779%, up from 1.728% late Friday.

Commodities Recap

Gold edged lower on Monday as investors leaned towards riskier assets, driven by optimism on U.S.-China trade talks and fading fears of a global economic slowdown.

 

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,510.80 per ounce at 9:52 a.m. EDT (1352 GMT). U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,513.40.

Oil prices crept upwards on Monday, with Brent reaching its highest in more than a month after the previous day’s boost from growing expectations of a U.S.-China trade deal and Iran flagging OPEC discussions of a deeper output cut next month.

Brent crude futures for January  rose 80 cents to $62.49 a barrel by 1203 GMT, erasing earlier losses and reaching peaks last seen on Sept. 27. December U.S. crude futures  also swung back into positive territory, up 64 cents at $56.84 a barrel.

By Srikanth G
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