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America’s Roundup: Dollar notches small weekly gain after weak U.S. data, Wall Street gains, Gold hits 7-year high, Oil prices jump as demand shows signs of picking up-May 16th,2020

Market Roundup

• U.S. retail sales plunge 16.4% in April

• US April Retail Sales (MoM) -16.4%,-12.0% forecast,-8.4% previous

• US April Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM)  -16.2%, -2.8% previous

• US April Retail Sales (YoY) -21.61%, -5.80% previous

• US April Retail Control (MoM) -15.3%, -4.6% forecast, 2.0% previous

• US April Core Retail Sales (MoM) -17.2%,  -8.6% forecast, -4.2% previous

• US May NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -48.50, -63.50 forecast, -78.20    previous

• Canada March Foreign Securities Purchases -9.78B,   20.61B previous

• Canada March Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians -42.24B, 6.14B previous

• Russia Trade Balance 9.31B,   5.76B forecast, 9.66B previous

• US April Industrial Production (YoY)  -15.04%,-5.49% previous

• US April Manufacturing Production (MoM) -13.7%,  -13.0% forecast, -6.3% previous  

 • US April Capacity Utilization Rate 64.0% forecast 64.9%, 72.7% previous

• US April Industrial Production (MoM)  -11.2%,-11.5% forecast, -5.4% previous

• US May Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.0%,  2.1% previous

• US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.60%, 2.50% previous

• US May Michigan Consumer Expectations 67.7, 71.8 forecast, 70.1 previous

• US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment 73.7, 68.0 forecast, 71.8 previous

• US May Michigan Current Conditions 83.0,  75.0 forecast, 74.3 previous

• US March Retail Inventories Ex Auto -1.0% ,-1.3% previous

• US March JOLTs Job Openings 6.191M,6.882M previous

• US March Business Inventories (MoM) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data

•No economic data ahead

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Friday after German economic output contracted by 2.2% in the first quarter, as market participants were expecting. Germany slid into recession after suffering its steepest quarterly contraction since the 2009 financial crisis as shops and factories were shut down in mid-March, preliminary data showed on Friday. Moreover, the euro zone economy experienced its deepest contraction on record in the first three months of the year against the previous quarter .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0827(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0890 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0754 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: Sterling fell against dollar on Friday, hitting its lowest for more than a month, after Britain and the European Union traded threats over a Brexit free trade deal. British chief negotiator David Frost said on Friday the major obstacle to a deal was the EU’s insistence on including a set of unbalanced proposals on a so-called “level playing field” that would bind Britain to EU rules. The pound fell to $1.2107, its lowest since March 27, last trading 0.89% lower at $1.2113.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2238 (5 DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2301 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2118 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2100 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar added to this week's decline against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as fear that trade tensions between the United States and China could ramp up offset higher oil prices. Canada runs a current account deficit and it is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the global flow of trade and capital. At (20:16 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.43% lower at 1.4108 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4117 (May 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4256 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4047 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3986 (55 DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen Friday as rising U.S.-China trade tensions increased fears that the economy reeling from coronavirus will take longer to recover. Economic fears were heightened by news that the Trump administration ramped up tensions with China by moving to block shipments of semiconductors to Huawei Technologies. China responded, saying it would put U.S. companies on an unreliable entity list. On the data front, U.S. retail sales posted record declines in April for a second straight month as stay-in-place orders to control the spread of the novel coronavirus kept stores shuttered. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.07 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.41 (30 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.82 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 106.00(Psychological level). 

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Friday, with investors taking comfort in China’s first rise in factory output this year after it eased a coronavirus-induced lockdown, but lingering Sino-U.S. tensions kept stocks on course for weekly declines.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by  1.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.    

U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday as better-than-expected industrial data from China raised hopes of an eventual economic recovery from coronavirus-related lockdowns.

Dow Jones closed up by  0.25% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.39 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.79%  percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors looked for signs that public health steps have readied the economy to reopen. 

The benchmark 10-year yield was up 2.5 basis points to 0.6444%

Commodities Recap

U.S. crude prices jumped 7% on Friday to their highest since March, on strengthening fuel demand as countries around the world eased travel restrictions they had imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil settled up $1.87, or 6.8% at $29.43 a barrel, just off the session peak of $29.92, its highest since mid-March. WTI soared 9% in the previous session.

Brent crude settled up $1.37, or 4.4% a barrel at $32.50. Brent rose nearly 7% on Thursday.

Gold jumped more than 1% on Friday to levels last seen in 2012, as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions added to concerns about a deep economic slump due to the coronavirus pandemic.

 Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,741.65 per ounce by 2:49 p.m. EDT (1847 GMT). During the session it hit its highest since November 2012 at $1,751.25. Bullion has risen over 2% so far this week.  U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $1,756.30.

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