Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.635%, -0.642% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction-0.643%, -0.631% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.642%,-0.627% previous
• US Jan CB Employment Trends Index 99.27, 99.01 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT
•23:30 Japan Dec Overall wage income of employees -1.8% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Overtime Pay (YoY) -10.80% previous
•23:30 Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY) -2.2% previous
•23:30 Japan Jan M3 Money Supply 1,930.1T previous
•23:30 Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY) 9.0% previous
•05:00 Australia Feb Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.5% previous
•05:20 Japan PPI (YoY) -1.6% forecast, -2.0% previous
•05:20 Japan Jan PPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•05:30 Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 91.8% previous
•06:00 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) 10.9% forecast,2.6% previous
•07:00 China Jan CPI (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was modestly up against the dollar on Monday, after data showed German industry avoided a contraction in December. Despite coronavirus lockdowns at home and abroad, demand from China helped export-oriented manufacturers in Europe’s largest economy weather the COVID-19 pandemic. Industrial output was flat on the month after an upwardly revised increase of 1.5% in the previous month, figures released by the Federal Statistics Office showed. This was the first stagnation following seven consecutive months of expansions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2046(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2112 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1967 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1879 ( 23.6% fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against a stronger dollar on Monday as hopes a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid package will be passed by U.S. lawmakers boosted dollar, while analysts were bullish on its outlook and latest positioning data showed the overall speculative long position on the British currency had increased. The pound has strengthened against both dollar and euro in February, boosted by heightened risk appetite in global markets, optimism surrounding the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout and a lessening of negative rates expectations. The Bank of England (BoE) reported the findings of its consultation with banks about the feasibility of implementing negative rates last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2800 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3676 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3632 (35EMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged up against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, adding to its gains from Friday, as oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a year and data showed speculators raising bullish bets on the currency. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was boosted by supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further U.S. economic stimulus. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.2738 to the greenback, or 78.49 U.S. cents, having touched its strongest level since Jan. 27 at 1.2731.It gained 0.6% on Friday despite data showing Canada lost far more jobs than expected in January, while it has climbed about 15% since March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2768 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2854 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2726 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2614 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed on Monday against yen in choppy trading, holding its ground as investors continued to price in faster U.S. recovery than most countries. President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress forged ahead with their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package on Friday as lawmakers approved a budget outline that will allow them to muscle Biden's plan through in the coming weeks without Republican support.Analysts say that as the economy recovers from coronavirus-related business shutdowns the rise in inflation expectations could have further room to run. U.S. inflation data for January will be released on Wednesday. Consumer prices increased 0.4% in December. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.78 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.10 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.87 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, led by economically sensitive cyclical sectors, as sentiment was lifted by hopes of a quicker recovery and multi-billion dollar deals in the region.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.53 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.47percent.
Wall Street reached all-time closing highs on Monday as investor optimism was stoked by prospects of a speedier economic recovery from the global health crisis, driven by increased stimulus and an accelerated vaccine rollout.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.76%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.74% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.95 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields held near 11-month highs on Monday as U.S. fiscal stimulus was seen boosting economic growth and spurring inflation, and before the Treasury Department sells new longer-dated debt.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 1.167%, after earlier reaching 1.200%, the highest since March. Thirty-year yields were last 1.953%, after earlier rising above 2% for the first time since last February.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Monday as investor focus returned to prospects of a substantial U.S. stimulus package, which bolstered bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge and offset pressure from a resultant rally in equities and a firmer dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $1,825.69 per ounce by 1258 GMT. U.S. gold futures also added 0.6% to $1,822.90.
Oil prices rose 2% on Monday to their highest in over a year, with Brent nudging past $60 a barrel, boosted by supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further U.S. economic stimulus.
Brent rose $1.22, or 2.1%, to settle at $60.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.12, or 2%, to settle at $57.97 a barrel. Both benchmarks were at the highest since January 2020.
