Market Roundup
• US w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 217k, 215k forecast, 216k previous
• US w/e Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg, 216.25K, 214.75Kprevious
• US w/e Continued Jobless Claims, 1,662K , 11,685K forecast, 1,701K previous
• US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2), 2.3%, 2.2% forecast, 3.5% previous
• US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2), 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 5.5% previous
• Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD), 530.5B, 527.7B previous
• Russia CPI (MoM) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2%previous
• Russia CPI (YoY) 4.3%, 4.4% forecast 4.6% previous
• Russia Central Bank Reserves 518.3 B, 517.1 B previous
• US Aug Markit Composite PMI 50.7 forecast 50.9, previous
• US Aug Services PMI 50.7, 51.0 forecast, 50.9 previous
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 2.0%, previous 2.1%
• US Jul Factory Orders (MoM) 1.4%, 1.0% forecast 0.5% previous
• US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 61.5, 53.3 forecast, 53.1 previous
• US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.4, 54.0 forecast, 53.7 previous
• US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 58.2,, 56.5 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Jul Household Spending (YoY) 0.9%, 2.7% previous
• 23:30 Japan Jul Household Spending (MoM) -1.3%, -2.8% previous
• 23:50 Japan Aug Foreign Reserves (USD) 1,316.5B previous
• 23:50 Japan Leading Index 93.2, 93.3 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events.
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as renewed U.S.-China trade optimism and upbeat U.S. economic data increased demand for greenback. The announcement that top negotiators from the United States and China will meet in early October in Washington raised hopes of a possible resolution to the two countries’ brutal trade war that has shaken markets and wreaked havoc on the global economy. U.S. private payrolls increased in August at their fastest pace in four months.A separate report showed the U.S. services industry rebounded last month to its fastest expansion since February, bouncing back from a three-year low, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI). Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1091 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1156 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0925 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0900 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD:The British pound rose against dollar on Thursday, after lawmakers voted to prevent Prime Minister Boris Johnson taking Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without a transition agreement and his brother Jo quit the government, citing national interest. Political uncertainty remained high as the prime minister renewed his effort to seek an election on Oct. 15 after a first attempt was defeated on Wednesday. But sterling responded to a sense that a no-deal Brexit had been averted for now. The British currency rose as much 0.8% to above $1.2350, its highest since July 29 and building on Wednesday’s 1.4% surge, its biggest one-day jump since March.Though it trimmed some gains to stand 0.6% up on the day at $1.2325 in late US trading.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2359 (Higher Bollinger Band), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2209 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2156 (21 DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, pulling back from a three-week high reached after the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, as encouraging U.S. data boosted the greenback.The U.S. dollar pared its decline against a basket of major currencies after data showed that U.S. services sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3226 to the greenback, or 75.59 U.S.cents. The currency's weakest level was 1.3246, while it touched its strongest since Aug. 13 at 1.3192. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3276 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3286 (5 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as global tensions including the U.S.-China trade conflict showed signs of thawing, bolstering investor confidence and reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. The most notable development was China and the United States agreeing on Thursday to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington. That stoked hopes the world's biggest economies would move toward a deal to resolve their trade differences. Their heated rhetoric and tit-for-tat tariffs have rattled investors and their outlook on the global economy since this summer. In late U.S. trading, the dollar was up 0.53% at 106.93 yen after reaching 107.23 yen, which was its highest level since late July. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.24 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.99 (Ichimoku Cloud Bottom).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.18 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 105.74 (Sep 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European shares rose for a second straight day on Thursday, after China said it would hold trade talks with the United States, raising hopes that the two countries will make progress on a dispute that has put major economies at risk of recession.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.55 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.85 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 1.11 percent.
U.S. stocks hit a one-month high on Thursday on hopes of a de-escalation in trade tensions after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold high-level talks next month, while strong economic data eased concerns of a domestic slowdown.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.41 percent, S&P 500 ended up 1.30 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.75 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rocketed higher on Thursday after news that the United States and China had agreed to hold talks in October, spurring hopes for a long-awaited trade deal that might remove a drag on growth.
Across maturities, yields were at least 10 basis points higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 1.574%, up 11.7 basis points. The two-year yield, which moves with expectations of interest rate policy, was up 11.8 basis points to 1.552%.
Gold slumped more than 2% and silver fell over 4% on Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and hopes of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war boosted Treasury yields and soothed fears of an economic slowdown, driving riskier assets higher.
Spot gold fell 2.3% to $1,517.20 per ounce at 1:47 p.m. EDT (1747 GMT) and silver fell 4.2% to $18.74 per ounce, after earlier dipping as low as $1,509.03 and $18.48, respectively. Both precious metals were set for their worst daily percentage decline in more than 2-1/2 years.U.S. gold futures settled down 2.2% at $1,525.90 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Thursday, giving up some of the strong gains of the previous session, after an industry report showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, against analyst expectations of a decline.
Brent crude was down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $60.52 a barrel. On Wednesday, Brent rose 4.2 percent.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $56.03 a barrel, having risen 4.3% the previous session, the biggest percentage gain in nearly two months.
