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America's Roundup: Dollar flat as yield curve inversion deepens, Wall Street falls, Gold hits 3-week high, Oil prices mixed on economic slowdown fears, supply hopes-March 26th, 2019

Market Roundup

• Flattened yield curve reason to be nervous, but US economy solid - Fed's Evans

• Former Fed chair Yellen says yield curve may signal need to cut rates, not a recession

• Surprise rise in German business morale dispels recession fears

• Trump lashes out after Russia probe, cites 'treasonous' and 'evil' acts

• U.S.-China trade war poses biggest risk to global stability-IMF's Lipton

• May fights for control as lawmakers aim to seize Brexit process

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 25 Mar  21:45 New Zealand  Feb Annual Trade Balance (NZD), -6.36 bln previous

• 25 Mar 21:45 New Zealand  Feb Trade Balance (NZD), -914.0 mln previous

• 25 Mar 21:45 Feb Imports (NZD), 5.32 bln previous

• 25 Mar 21:45 Feb Exports (NZD), 4.40 bln previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 07:45 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the ECB and Deutsche Bundesbank Joint Meeting in Frankfurt

• 11:00 Riksbank Deputy Governor Cecilia Skingsley is giving a speech on the effects of digitalization on the economy. The speech will be followed by a panel discussion in Stockholm

• 12:00 ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch holds news conference in Bratislava 

• 12:30 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to issue nonmanufacturing business outlook survey for March in Philadelphia 

• 19:00 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks before event, "Managing Inflation in the Current Economy" hosted by the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as a stronger-than-forecast German business confidence survey supported euro  across the board. Germany's IFO Institute said its business climate index rose to 99.6, beating a consensus forecast for a reading of 98.5 and following six consecutive drops.The euro was up 0.11 percent at $1.1312. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.03 at 96.58. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1335 (61.8% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1303 (50% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1272 (38.2% retracement level).

GBP/USD:Sterling weakened against dollar on Monday, after British Prime Minister Theresa May said there was not yet enough support to put her Brexit deal to a third parliamentary vote. The pound had jumped higher earlier in the day on media reports that lawmakers would vote again on Tuesday on May's twice-defeated Brexit withdrawal agreement. With British politics at fever pitch and little clarity on how, when or even if Brexit will take place, sterling traders are struggling to navigate the blizzard of headlines. A range of outcomes remain possible including a long postponement, a no-deal exit or no Brexit at all. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3243 (23.6% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3310 (March 19th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3072 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3011 (Lower Bollinger Band).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as persistent worries about a slowing domestic and global economic growth kept investor cautious. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as growth concerns overshadowed support from tighter supply. U.S. crude oil futures were down 0.2 percent at $58.91 a barrel. The Canadian dollar  was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3425 to the greenback, or 74.49 U.S. cents. The currency touched its weakest intraday since March 11 at 1.3440. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3452 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3386 (50% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3319 (61.8% retracement level).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as persistent concerns of economic recession increased demand for safe-haven assets. Attention is focused heavily on the state of world growth after the U.S. Federal Reserve turned tail on raising interest rates, lacklustre Chinese data and a danger of a chaotic Brexit that would hit the British and European economies. The dollar was 0.07 lower versus the Japanese yen at 109.97. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.38 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.01  (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.69  (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 108.90 (23.6% retracement level). 

Equities Recap

Europe suffered a fourth day of losses as persistent worries about the pace of global growth and Brexit uncertainty took their toll on shares in the region.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.3 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.1 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.1 percent.

The S&P 500 ended a choppy session slightly lower on Monday as worries about a slowdown in global economic growth lingered and as Apple Inc   shares fell after the company unveiled its video streaming servicel.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.07 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 2.20 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.06 percent.

Treasuries Recap

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since December 2017 on Monday while the yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes inverted further as investors evaluated last week’s dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.

Ten-year notes   gained 18/32 in price to yield 2.393 percent, down from 2.455 percent on Friday.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose to a more than three-week high on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and as worries over global economic growth pushed investors into safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 0.67 percent to $1,322.48 an ounce by (2012 GMT), its highest since Feb. 28. Last week it posted its third consecutive weekly gain, rising about 1 percent. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8 percent higher at $1,322.6.

Oil prices were mixed on Monday, as concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth lingered, offset by the prospect of tighter U.S. crude supply.

Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.21 a barrel, up 18 cents, while U.S. crude fell to $58.82 a barrel, down 22 cents.

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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

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50 %

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48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 774395774395m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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January 31 00:00 UTC 774395774395m

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 786215786215m

ARTrade Balance

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-1541 %

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 786215786215m

ARTrade Balance

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-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 774395774395m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 774395774395m

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 774395774395m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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