Markey Roundup:
• US June Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 6.7%, 4.2% forecast, 12.4% previous
• US June Retail Sales (MoM) 7.5%, 5.0% forecast, 17.7% previous
• US June Core Retail Sales (MoM) 7.3%, 5.0% forecast, 12.4% previous
• US July Philly Fed Business Conditions 36.0, 66.3 previous
• US July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 24.1, 20.0 previous, 27.5 previous
• US July Philly Fed Prices Paid 15.70, 11.10 previous
• US July Philly Fed Employment 20.1, -4.3 previous
• US July Philly Fed CAPEX Index 26.6, 26.30 previous
• Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 1,042.9K, 208.4K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 1,300K, 1,250K forecast, 1,314K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 17,338K, 17,600K forecast ,18,062K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 1,375.00K,1,437.25K previous
• Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 574.2B, 569.8B previous
• US Jul NAHB Housing Market Index 72. 60, 58 previous
• US May Business Inventories (MoM) -2.3%, -2.3% , -1.3% previous
• Russia June PPI (MoM) 6.1%,-2.8% previous
• Russia June PPI (YoY) -8.3%,-14.1% previous
• Russia June Industrial Production (YoY) -9.4%,-7.9% forecast, -9.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:30 New Zealand June Business NZ PMI 39.7 previous
• 23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) -0.1%forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro held steady against dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank kept policy steady after a series of moves to support the pandemic-hit economy. The ECB also kept its deposit rate unchanged at a record low minus 0.5% while the main refinancing rate remains at zero.The ECB remains on track to buy up to 1.35 trillion euros worth of debt through next June under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and up to 1.8 trillion euros if other purchases are also included. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1457 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1500 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1353 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1321 (11 DMA).
GBP/USD: The British pound erased its early losses on Thursday as risk appetite was boosted after U.S. retail sales data topped estimates, although fears of a surge in coronavirus infection rates capped its gains. The U.S. Commerce Department’s report showed retail sales jumped 7.5% last month compared with economists’ forecast of 5%, suggesting the economy was continuing to pull out of a coronavirus-driven slump. The pound against the dollar, was trading broadly steady after falling as much as 0.5% to 1.2520 earlier in the session after data showed the slide in Britain’s jobs market eased in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2602 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2663 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2485 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400 (50% fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors worried that rising coronavirus cases in the United States could slow economic recovery, with the loonie pulling back from an earlier. The S&P 500 slipped from a five-week high after a jump in coronavirus caseloads that has forced California and other states to shut down again. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.5% lower at 1.3575 to the greenback, or 73.66 U.S. cents. The currency touched its strongest intraday level since last Thursday at 1.3498 one-week high. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.35458 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3626 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3492 (Faily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3461(23.6% fib).
.USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen Thursday as investors focused on poor Chinese retail sales instead of its stronger than expected economic growth in the past quarter, with the focus now shifting more to a European Union summit this weekend. Surging U.S. coronavirus cases dampened sentiment and weighed on equity markets, which in turn supported the U.S. dollar, a proxy for global risk sentiment. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.25 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.45 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.82 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 106.50 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ended off session lows on Thursday ahead of a keenly awaited meeting to organise a European recovery fund, after weak earnings and a growing number of COVID-19 cases had earlier pushed stocks down from one-month highs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.43percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.46 percent.
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday with the S&P 500 retreating from a five-week high as concerns about the economic toll from another round of shutdowns across the United States offset data showing upbeat domestic retail sales in June.
Dow Jones was closed down by 0.50 percent, S&P 500 was down by 0.34 percent, Nasdaq was trading down by 0.73 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as the rapid spread of coronavirus cases across some American states weighed on risk sentiment, even as data showed U.S. economic improvement.
Benchmark 10-year notes fell two basis points to 0.612%. They have held in a tight range from 0.569% to 0.784% since mid-June.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes flattened one basis point to 47 basis points.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Thursday after the European Central Bank kept its policy on hold, prompting some investors to lock in profits, but worries over mounting cases of the coronavirus and their impact on economic recovery limited bullion’s decline.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,804.29 per ounce by 11:10 am EDT (1510 GMT). It hit $1,817.71, its highest since September 2011, last week.U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,809.90.
Oil prices fell 1% on Thursday after OPEC+ agreed to ease record supply curbs and as new infections of the novel coronavirus continue to surge in the United States.
Brent fell 42 cents, or 1%, to settle at $43.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 45 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $40.75 a barrel.
