Almost everything in the US November labor reports fell back to the respectable-if-pedestrian trend of the past four years

Almost everything in the November labor reports fell back to the respectable-if-pedestrian trend of the past four years and won't raise any fresh anxiety at the Fed when it pulls the trigger on lift-off 11 days from now. Payrolls grew by 211k, a sprinkle higher than their 5-year average of 208k. Private sector jobs grew by 197k, a sprinkle below their 5-year bogey of 210k. In the scheme of things, both series were spot on trend. The work week held steady at 34.8 hours and the labor force participation rate rose by a tick to 62.5%, preventing the unemployment rate from falling below last month's 5.0%. 

The one thing that didn't fall back to trend - and should greatly boost the Fed's confidence about hiking rates on the 17th - was the wage data. Recall that average hourly earnings spiked by 0.4% (MoM, sa) last month and one could reasonably have expected negative growth in November simply owing to statistical payback. Instead, wages grew by another 0.2%, lifting the average monthly rise of the past four months to 0.24%. 

That annualizes to nearly a 3% pace, which is a hefty jump indeed from the 2.1% on-year pace in wage growth that has prevailed, to everyone's chagrin, for the past 4-5 years. Whether such monthly rises are sustained remains to be seen. But they are what the Fed has been looking for for a long, long time and can only raise its confidence that the time for lift-off has come. Indeed, they may make a few officials wonder if they've arrived a bit late at the gate.