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API reports draw while market awaits EIA report

Both Brent and WTI is heading higher as the market is coming closer to balance and on OPEC optimism. Brent is trading at $63.7 per barrel and WTI at $6.6 per barrel discount.

Key factors at play in crude oil market –

  • OPEC chief called on members to take up extraordinary steps to reduce the imbalance in 2018. OPEC remains confident that imbalance reducing.
  • Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih vowed to continue with agreement unless glut vanishes.
  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin-Salman led Corruption Committee arrested 11 princes, scores of senior officials and incumbent ministers. One prince died in a shootout while resisting arrest.  
  • Iraq remains the biggest cheater in OPEC in terms of the agreement.
  • Reuters’ survey showed OPEC production declined by 80,000 barrels per day in October.
  • OPEC production increased by 88,000 barrels/day in September after declining by 79,000 barrels per day m/min August, and that after an increase of 173,000 barrels per day in July. In June production rose by 393,000 barrels per day in June compared to the previous month. In May production increased by 366,000 barrels per day.
  • President Trump declined to certify Iran’s compliance with the agreement and pushed it to Congress.
  • OPEC YTD compliance at 92 percent and non-OPEC compliance at 70 percent.
  • Current U.S production at 9.55 million barrels per day.
  • The oil market is in backwardation, both Brent and WTI.
  • API reported a draw of 7.13 million barrels of crude oil. Gasoline saw a build of 1.94 million barrels.

Today’s inventory report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released at 14:30 GMT.

Trade idea –

  • Active call - Book profit as WTI reached $56 per barrel. Brent reached the target at $59 per barrel; extended to $65 per barrel.

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